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The algorithm advances are going to crash this so hard.


Or will more efficient algorithms just mean we run even more AI models, increasing the demand for AI chips even more?


I heard Greg Brockman on a podcast saying they are limited by computer and memory. They have line of sight in solving many different kinds of problems. But they also have to survive in the meantime. Hence the focus on enterprise recently. They could just ask Government to fund them doing other research areas


Better algos = more demand

Memory squeeze will get worse before it gets better.


I mean, god willing, but it'll be just as likely that we'll blissfully consume 100 million token contexts in that case.


isn't there a law for that? as things become cheaper you consume more?


You're probably thinking about jevons paradox. But you slightly mis-stated. It is the phenomenon that increasing the efficiency of resource consumption can end up increasing total consumption.

As you stated it, it would merely be a property of (nearly) all demand curves. Jevons paradox only happens sometimes. It isn't a law.


An example of where it stopped happening is with gasoline in developed countries. Cars having better fuel efficiency doesn’t make me drive further to the grocery store or work.

Generally when someone replaces their vehicle the new one is more fuel efficient than the old one even if I bought the same car.




jevons paradox


classic uneducated algo copium talk


> their own arbitrary reasons

Outside pressure behind much of it.

In any case, there's a fundamental mismatch between pressure groups and the leverage they can exert through single-consensus. I don't know how to describe the other consensus that is on my brain, but it is distinct.


Making a note of this as an obvious technical alliance that should have existed for decades.


> we need someone

> Then GPL fans can

Checks out


The OS running the program isn't even perfect.

I tire so much of complainers who want someone else to make all their tools infallible yet want to do nothing. Let's just full-stop there. They not only want to avoid working on the tools. They prefer if the tool does everything for them, and they prefer having things done for them without bound.

Complainers want easy APIs. When the API isn't easy enough, they want easy Kubernetes containers "programmed" by YAML. When that isn't easy enough, it's all point-and-click hosted services on GCP and Amazon. You people don't want to program. You want apps. Infallable apps. You want to be consumers, fed from the sky like little birds who endeavor only never to fledge, never to fly. And you want to pay nothing for it.

The secret you people need to figure out is that the lifestyle you think is sustainable is actually a commensal relationship with people building things for you. There is no vast alliance to wrest power from corporations, to dissolve capitalism, no grass roots movement to "shake things up." There is food falling from higher in the water column from an ecosystem filled with people who do things. Those above do not have time to look down, but if they did, all they would feel is overwhelming contempt, so they only look across at the horizon.

But why do people seek to confirm comments like this? Because Rust scary. Churn on, little ant mill. Let be free any who understand the pointlessness of this performance.


Presuming there is an infinite pool of programmers who tirelessly work for a low price?


Was the human labor?


Present-to-present time, especially while we wait for VK_EXT_present_timing to become adopted, can only be indirectly measured. This makes just-in-time rendering unnecessarily hard. High-accuracy event timings can only be made for rendering, not presentation. The missed latches can be seen by phase doubling. Waiting on the last frame to finish displaying requires use of a fence on a separate timing thread. The timings provided by this and by VK_KHR_present_wait are muddied with OS scheduler latency. Spin-locking the waits with zero timeouts should be a thing, but does not seem to be guaranteed. The compositor also seems to inject scheduler jitter.

After all that, people can talk about averaging methods, but there's a lot to be done before what this blog is talking about is even available.

The reason solving just-in-time rendering is important is because queue priority is not actually supported by most drivers. Some extensions can give us global priority for the process, not real priority for queues. The right way then to avoid workload A from causing workload B to miss a latch is to put workload A into the idle time that would exist from running B just in time. This is itself a luxury based on the fact that workload B is lightweight enough that its own uncertainty can only rarely exceed the latch deadline.

At least on VRR displays, making B a bit late has much less dire consequences, but driving refresh from the application needs exclusive access to the display, and not all compositors want to provide this.

Please do reach out if it seems like I'm only still catching up. I'm sure someone knows a decent way to get sub-millisecond just-in-time rendering accuracy without watching the phase suddenly double on FRR. Ping https://github.com/positron-solutions/mutate and we can get in touch.


What these hardliners are standing for, I have no idea. If the code passes review, we're just arguing about hues of zeros and ones. "AI" is an attribute that type-erases entirely once an engineer pulls out the useful expressions and whips them into shape.

The worst part about all reactionary scares is that, because the behaviors are driven by emotion and feeling as opposed to any intentional course of action, the outcomes are usually counter productive. The current AI scare is exactly what you would want if you are OpenAI. Convince OSS, not to mention "free" software people, to run around dooming and ant milling each other about "AI bad" and pretty soon OSS is a poisonous minefield for any actual open AI, so OSS as a whole just sabotages itself and is mostly out of the fight.

I'm currently in the middle of trying to blow straight past this gatekeepy outer layer of the online discourse. What is a bit frustrating is knowing that while the seed will find the niches and begin spreading through invisible channels, in the visible channels, there's going to be all kinds of knee-jerk pushback from these anti-AI hardliners who can't distinguish between local AI and paying Anthropic for a license to use a computer. Worse, they don't care. The social psychosis of being empowered against some "others" is more important. Either that or they are bots.

And all of this is on top of what I've been saying for over a year. VRAM efficiency will kill the datacenter overspend. Local, online training will make it so that skilled users get better models over time, on their own data. Consultative AI is the future.

I have to remind myself that this entire misstep is a result of a broken information space, late-stage traditional social, filled with people (and "people") who have been programmed for years on performative clap-backs and middling ideas.

So fortunate to have some life before internet perspective to lean back on. My instinct and old-world common sense can see a way out, but it is nonetheless frustrating to watch the online discourse essentially blinding itself while doubling down on all this hand wringing to no end, accomplishing nothing more than burning a few witches and salting their own lands. You couldn't want it any better if you were busy entrenching.


Doing short form updates on BlueSky, but that is the worst algorithmic feed I have ever experienced in my life. I gave it some data. I indicated I didn't want to see some posts. The self-selection of the overall audience is overwhelmingly strong. No matter what I do to shape my engagement, all I get is Rachel Maddow in my feed.

The reason I'm not on X is because I just won't use a platform owned by someone who thinks Nazi salutes are just free expression (of desire to censor political opposition into utter powerlessness before purging them), so I'm not complaining about the Blue in Bluesky.

Nonetheless what it's abundantly clear that whatever audience I need to connect with, I cannot effectively do it on BlueSky. They need desperate overhaul to fix the self-selection bias that is likely making the platform appealing to only a very certain kind of ant.


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