This section worries me a bit, as it's the sort of thing that doesn't consider the possibility of a major world-wide crisis. There are plenty of conceivable futures where these things could happen. A simple one is a small-scale non-nuclear war between China and US, where they disconnect completely from the larger Internet, but we avoid a global thermonuclear war. The continental European countries saw a 50% drop in GDP through WW2, and it could very well happen again.
When Mel Gibson is standing in the road shooting at gas thieves I think we'll all be doing something other than typing comments on HN. I live in an area where you could conceivably forage/hunt for all your food but it would be a pretty harsh life.
You could say that anything is theoretically possible, but the entire extended history of the world contradicts that idea. Economic progress is about as universal as anything in the man-made world has ever been. There have been setbacks, sure, but they have invariably been limited and short-lived. I'm sure there was a large drop in GDP during WWII, and I'm also sure that shortly after, it recovered and proceeded to climb well beyond where it was before the war started, as is the case with every other war ever fought, and any other type of catastrophe you can think of.
This section worries me a bit, as it's the sort of thing that doesn't consider the possibility of a major world-wide crisis. There are plenty of conceivable futures where these things could happen. A simple one is a small-scale non-nuclear war between China and US, where they disconnect completely from the larger Internet, but we avoid a global thermonuclear war. The continental European countries saw a 50% drop in GDP through WW2, and it could very well happen again.